South Africa's Morne Morkel practices at the Oval ahead of the first Test. It remains to be seen how he bowls on English pitches. Photograph: Tom Hevezi/AP
These coming three Test matches will be a battle between two heavyweights, currently the best in the business no matter the story told by the rankings. Should England draw, they will remain the premier Test match side. A South African win, however, will see the ICC mace passed on to Graeme Smith. There is a considerable amount of prestige at stake.
Yet it must be England who are favourites. Their knowledge and use of home conditions gives them an advantage, particularly when it comes to bowling. Except for the number six position, they have a settled, well drilled side used to winning and buoyed by their recent overwhelming success against Australia, albeit in a different format. These things tend to rub off.
Despite their strident assertions to the contrary, the South African side must be underprepared, their plans disrupted by the weather at Taunton and Canterbury. In trying to claim that things could hardly have gone better, they are protesting just a little too much. The tragic loss of Mark Boucher may in itself prove an inspirational focal point for them, but it has seriously affected the balance of their side, with his replacement, Thami Tsolekile, not being risked and the gloves going instead to AB de Villiers, arguably the world's premier batsman in all forms.
Many batsmen who step up to keep wicket find their batting falls away. In a series where runs are sure to be at a premium given the respective qualities of the two attacks, this could be a risky option, and one that may not be sustainable throughout the series. The loss of the back-up paceman Marchant de Lange is a further blow, as their chosen replacement, Albie Morkel, scarcely looks a Test match quality alternative. One tweaked hamstring, as has happened to Graham Onions, one of England's reserves, during practice, and they are in bother.
On paper, South Africa possess arguably the strongest batting line-up in Test cricket at present. There are weaknesses in Alviro Petersen at the top of the order, and Jacques Rudolph and JP Duminy lower down, even if these are relative. But Smith, playing his 100th Test, Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis and De Villiers are batsmen of immense proven calibre. The game, though, as we are so often reminded, is not played on paper. Smith has been thunderous in England in the past, but it is 20 months since last he scored a century. England, if they bowl across him and full, and make sure not to stray on to his pads, will make his life difficult.
Amla is gifted, a touch player, but once again England will look to play him outside off stump. And Kallis averages under 30 on three tours here, around half his overall average, with his only Test hundred in England coming 14 years ago at Old Trafford. Rather than diminish him, age appears to be enhancing his batting, but that blight on his record is too glaring to be dismissed as an aberration.
But the key to the series in this dank summer will be how the two attacks perform. With Kallis providing a fourth seamer option and having more Test wickets than anyone on either side, there is greater depth to the South Africans. In Dale Steyn they have one of the finest of all strike bowlers, whose natural length and away swing, allied to his skiddy pace and the option of bringing the ball back into the right hander, ought to suit English conditions. So too with Vernon Philander, whose formative years in Test cricket have been phenomenal, although they must prove unsustainable at that level. This will be a challenge for him, for there is a considerable reputation to live up to, and once again the conditions would seem to be in his favour.
Whether Morne Morkel is an effective bowler here remains to be seen. His natural length is too short for English conditions, and it may be that in trying to adjust he will be unable to complete his natural arc and so merely float the ball down. Vince van der Bijl, similar in method, adapted brilliantly for Middlesex in 1980, but has Morkel the same capacity? The leg spin of Imran Tahir is not to be discounted, even in this summer, but realistically it is the least of England's worries.
Onion's injury is an inconvenience for England but no more. For all the promise that he and Steve Finn have shown, they will find it hard to shift Tim Bresnan, who is taking wickets at 26 apiece and averages 40 with the bat. Bresnan provides balance to the side, with a depth to the batting order that places Stuart Broad at nine and Graeme Swann at 10, potential runs that have made such a contribution to England's success. Doubts about Bresnan's fitness were allayed at the weekend after an injection into his right elbow, a hitherto untried treatment that has proved a success. But worries about Swann remain. He too has an ongoing elbow problem, for which he has received injections. Although the condition is manageable this series, he will need to be rested at some stage, most likely beginning with the one day matches that follow this Test series.
There might be talk of the jet stream shifting back north, but it hasn't gone just yet, and the prospect of a rain interrupted match remains. The dampness and lack of good sun to harden the pitch means this will surely be a bowlers' match on a surface that will lack the pace of old. Whoever wins the toss will want to bowl first. Runs will be a struggle, and a single innings of character could decide the outcome. I see England winning the match and taking the series 2-0.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/jul/18/england-south-africa-test-series
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